This page presents the historical trend of the U.S. Housing Market Index (HMI), a key measure of homebuilder sentiment. Published monthly by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the HMI reflects builders’ confidence in current and future single-family home sales.
What This Chart Shows
- HMI values above 50 indicate positive sentiment; below 50 suggest pessimism
- Sharp declines occurred during the 2008 housing crash and 2022 rate hikes
- Peaks often align with low interest rates and strong demand
- The index reacts quickly to changes in mortgage rates and buyer activity
Key Takeaways
- The Housing Market Index is a leading indicator of residential construction trends
- Builder sentiment influences housing starts, permits, and pricing
- High HMI readings signal expansion in the housing sector
- Low readings may precede slowdowns or recessions
Data Source
National Association of Home Builders via FRED®