This page tracks the historical trend of the U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a leading indicator of economic activity in the manufacturing sector. The PMI is based on surveys of supply chain managers and reflects new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.
What This Chart Shows
- PMI above 50 = manufacturing expansion
- PMI below 50 = contraction or recession risk
- The 2020 pandemic caused a historic drop followed by a rapid rebound
- 2022–2023 saw a prolonged contraction as interest rates rose
- Recent readings show stabilization as supply chains normalize
Key Takeaways
- PMI is one of the fastest‑moving economic indicators
- It often turns before GDP, employment, and industrial production
- Investors use PMI to gauge business confidence and future growth
- Sustained sub‑50 readings can foreshadow recessions or industrial slowdowns
- A 5‑year window captures the most relevant economic cycles for interpretation
Data Source
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) via YCharts